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OK0NAG > SOLAR 06.08.12 15:40l 129 Lines 5022 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Aug 06 1336 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU219
UGEOA 30512 20806 1240/ 9930/
12062 20062 30062
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 06 Aug 2012 until 08 Aug
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Aug 2012 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Aug 2012 10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Aug 2012 10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 028
COMMENT: An unnumbered active region at the solar south-east limb
produced an M1.6 flare peaking at 04:38 UT this morning. The flare was
accompanied by a narrow CME which will not arrive at the Earth. More
M-class flares are probable from this active region. A long and dark
filament is currently situated across the solar central meridian in the
southern hemisphere. The activity recently detected in the filament
channel by SDO/AIA makes its eruption very probable in the coming 24
hours. (The same filament produced a halo CME on August 4.) Due to its
position at the solar central meridian, the filament eruption will be
accompanied by an Earth-directed CME. The Earth is currently inside the
slow solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) magnitude. The IMF is steadily directed to the south in the
last hours, leading to active (K = 4) geomagnetic conditions reported by
Dourbes (note, however, that NOAA and IZMIRAN K-index remained below 4).
We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours. Late on
August 7 - early on August 8 we expect the arrival of the interplanetary
disturbance associated with the halo CME detected on the Sun on August
4. A minor geomagnetic storm will be possible.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 060, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20806 1240/ 05///
1//// 21340 3006/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
06 0433 0438 0441 S14E88 M1.6 84 V/2,IV/1,II/1
Location reported by SolarSoft Latest Events
END
USSPS 32404 05085 09022 62023 35619 4/801 64008 40620 21303 67004
12013 2/801 68018 21522 21405 69001 22723 1/802 70012 24127 31407
71000 24816 0/101
USSPS 21305 05182 09332 62020 36319 5/801 66010 41418 21305 69004
11313 2/801 68012 20823 21414 70000 22123 0/101 73011 23527 21311
USSPS 81202 06010 09932 70006 11012 2/801 69013 20322 21507 72010
23028 24413 73001 23817 0/101 64030 36517 41302 75001 40317 0/101
67008 41519 21304
UMAGF 30503 20806 1004/ 05069 1/014 21212 32223
UMAGF 31523 20806 ///// 0500/ 1/006 21102 32223
INDAA 20730
1/005 01603 30470 47067 03301 2/033
2/012 01200 80020 12012 00500 5/009
3/005 00800 50080 08009 01201 2/008
4/002 00200 50120 60081 03802 4/028
5/020 03301 60080 12012 00800 5/014
6/005 00800 80050 12016 00802 4/011
7/002 00500 50120 05012 01201 2/008
END
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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