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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.08.12 09:57l 107 Lines 4104 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly Ri Report
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Subject: Monthly Ri Report
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:Issued: 2012 Aug 01 0855 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
July 2012 : 66.5 (sixty-six point five)
Maximum : 97 on 7 // Minimum : 19 on 21, 22
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for July 2012 :
1.. 84 6.. 88 11.. 73 16.. 68 21.. 19 26.. 57 31.. 81
2.. 85 7.. 97 12.. 83 17.. 57 22.. 19 27.. 73
3.. 83 8.. 78 13.. 86 18.. 38 23.. 42 28.. 71
4.. 87 9.. 81 14.. 83 19.. 25 24.. 47 29.. 74
5.. 86 10.. 71 15.. 78 20.. 24 25.. 42 30.. 80
69 cooperating stations on August 1, 08 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for January 2012 : 65.5 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2012 Feb 67 67 2012 Aug 62 83 2013 Feb 71 94
Mar 62 70 Sep 63 84 Mar 72 93
Apr 58 72 Oct 65 86 Apr 72 92
May 59 75 Nov 67 88 May 71 91
Jun 60 78 Dec 69 91 Jun 70 91
Jul 61 81 2013 Jan 70 92 Jul 69 92
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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