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WA7EES > SWPC 12.07.12 05:43l 63 Lines 2700 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1224WA7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<VE3UIL<KJ6IX<KV7J<KD6PGI
Sent: 120712/0326Z 41684@KD6PGI.OR.USA.NOAM BPQK1.4.51
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1519 (S15W18), 1520
(S17E06) and 1521 (S22W07) all produced C-class flares during the
period. The largest event was a C9/1n at 11/0831Z from Region 1521.
Region 1520 indicated consolidation and rotation in its trailer
spots while developing additional sheer. The region remained a
complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. During the past 24
hours, Region 1521 elongated along its E/W axis and developed a
gamma configuration in its trailer spots. The region is now
classified as an E-type beta-gamma group. A 20 degree long filament
erupted in the NE quadrant of the disk at about 11/0930Z. The
eruption occurred along a channel centered near N22E22. Limited
LASCO imagery hinted at a possible CME that lifted off the NNE limb
likely associated with the filament eruption. Further analysis of
this CME is ongoing.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a slight chance for X-class events for the next three
days (12 - 14 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated high latitude minor to major storm intervals from
11/0600 - 1200Z. ACE solar data indicated wind velocities remained
steady at about 500 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the next
three days (12 - 14 July).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 05/05/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 162
Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 160/160/155
90 Day Mean 11 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 015/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
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