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WA7EES > RSGA 06.07.12 03:46l 56 Lines 2297 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1158WA7EES
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Subj: Report of Solar_Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<N9PMO<N9PMO<VE1MPF<VE9MPF<VE3UIL<KJ6IX<
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Sent: 120706/0152Z 41478@KD6PGI.OR.USA.NOAM BPQK1.4.51
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1515 (S17W36) produced
an M6/1b at 05/1144Z along with several low-level M-class flares.
The region continued to grow slightly in areal coverage and
maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1513
(N15W52) grew as well but did not produce any further M-class
activity since yesterday's report.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class flares for the next three days
(06-08 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period due to residual effects from a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS). Solar wind speed decreased throughout the period to
approximately 475 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (06-07 July) as
effects from the CH HSS subside. Unsettled to active conditions are
likely on day three (08 July), with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods, due to effects from the CME associated with the M1/2n
flare observed at 04/1639Z from Region 1513.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 165
Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 165/165/160
90 Day Mean 05 Jul 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 009/008-007/012-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/45
Minor storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/30/55
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