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WA7EES > RSGA 22.06.12 17:44l 48 Lines 1775 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : FC0WA7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<DB0RES<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<N9LYA<N0XR<W6IDS
Sent: 120622/1444Z 8260@W6IDS.IN.USA.NOAM BPQK1.4.50
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1504 (S15W89)
produced a long duration B7 flare at 21/1814Z which was the largest
event of the period. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly very low for the next three days. There is a chance
for an isolated C-class flare from Region 1504 on day 1 (22 June) as
it approaches the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 22-24 June.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 098
Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 21 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
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