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CX2SA > SWPC 15.06.12 23:20l 57 Lines 2333 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 61446-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 120615/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:61446 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:61446-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 1504
(S16W12) produced several C-class flares, the largest of which was a
C3/Sf flare at 1324Z. Although the magnetic configuration has
simplified from a delta to a beta-gamma, the area of the region has
increased. The remaining regions were relatively stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class flares are likely for the next three
days (16 June-18 June), primarily from Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mostly quiet until late on day 1 (16 June) to early
on day 2 (17 June). Activity is then expected to increase to active
levels with a chance for minor storm levels due to the combined
effects from both the 13 and 14 June CMEs. On day 3 (18 June)
conditions are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 20/20/20
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 145
Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 15 Jun 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 008/015-017/022-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor storm 10/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/50/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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