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WA7EES > RSGA 10.06.12 04:50l 65 Lines 2927 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 09 2244 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2012
:::::::::Corrected Copy:::::::::::
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1499 (N16W31) was
the most active region producing two M-class x-ray events. The first
event was an impulsive M1 flare at 09/1132Z and the second was also
an impulsive M1/Sf event which occurred at 09/1645Z. Region 1499
also produced several C1 events at 09/0308Z, 1032Z, and 1527Z.
Region 1499 was classified as a Cao type group with beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics. New Region 1504 (S18E67) was numbered
today and classified as a Cao type group with beta magnetic
characteristics. New Region 1505(S09E63) was also numbered today and
classified as a Axx type group with alpha magnetic characteristics.
There were no earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low with an increasing chance for occasional M-class activity for
the next three days (10-12 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. A weak disturbance
was observed on both ground and GOES magnetometers at 09/1841Z
leading to the single unsettled period of the day. Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft continued to decline and ended the period near
440 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magentic field
remained mostly neutral or positive. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (10-12
June) with the anticiapted glancing blows from CMEs on 06 June and
08 June and the arrival on 11 June of a coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M 45/50/55
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 128
Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 09 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 007/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/30/30
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