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CX2SA > SWPC 09.06.12 00:21l 71 Lines 3112 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 61195-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JM1YSB<JH9YMQ<VE3UIL<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 120608/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:61195 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:61195-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1494 (S18W33) produced
a C7 flare at 08/0307Z. The flare was accompanied by Type II and
Type IV radio emissions at 08/0305Z and 08/0308Z, respectively. A
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0443Z emerging from the
southern hemisphere. Analysis of LASCO and STEREO COR2 coronagraph
imagery indicated a speed of approximately 380 km/s. A subsequent
model run suggested a glancing blow at earth late on June 12th.
Filament eruptions were observed from the NE limb at 08/1645Z in SDO
304 imagery and at 08/1756Z in LASCO C2. A second eruption near
N10E50 was observed in SDO 304 imagery at 08/1706Z. The first
eruption is not expected to be geoeffective; the second is being
evaluted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event for the next three days
(09-11 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Data
from the ACE spacecraft suggested the possible arrival of the CME
from 05 June around 08/0800Z. A couple of unsettled periods
followed, but most of the day was quiet. Wind speed at ACE declined
throughout the period and ended the day near 500 km/s. The Bz
component of the IMF was generally neutral to slightly negative for
the first half of the day, and generally positive for the last half.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (09 June). The CME from 06
June is expected to arrive on day 2 (10 June), bringing unsettled
conditions with a chance for an isolated active period through day 3
(11 June).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 124
Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 125/125/130
90 Day Mean 08 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 006/005-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/30/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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