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WA7EES > RSGA 07.06.12 02:48l 62 Lines 2729 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1494 (S18W06)
produced an M2/1b at 06/2006Z associated with Type II (est. speed
1148 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. An associated CME was first
visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 06/2036Z. Further analysis will
be conducted as more images become available to determine
geoeffectiveness. A filament eruption was observed in SDO AIA 193
imagery around 05/1945Z near N12W10. The CME was first visible in
STEREO COR 2 imagery at 05/2039Z. The majority of the ejecta appears
to be north of the ecliptic plane, however, there is a weak
Earth-directed component. A model run is in progress to determine
geoeffectiveness. The Penticton 10 cm Flux value was estimated due
to flare enhancement.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event for the next
three days (07-09 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active for the past 24
hours due to effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods on day one
(07 June) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (08-09 June)
as effects from the CH HSS begin to subside.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 140
Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 06 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 011/015-007/012-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 40/30/15
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