| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 06.06.12 23:03l 163 Lines 8787 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 66MOK0NAG00I
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 120606/2201z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 6 Jun 2012 22:01:22 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 0.52
X-asg-debug-id: 1339019801-03b3480d9a19d5d0001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 06 Jun 2012 22:01:52.0531 (UTC) FILETIME=[FACA0E30:01CD442F]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=0.52 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=BSF_SC0_MISMATCH_TO, HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.168
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.99146Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 BSF_SC0_MISMATCH_TO Envelope rcpt doesn't match header0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY
: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Message text disguised using base64 encoding
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1339019801
----boundary_60690_f06d92ac-51ed-4d3e-bd4f-688bcdc209a4
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1494 (S18W06)
produced an M2/1b at 06/2006Z associated with Type II (est. speed
1148 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. An associated CME was first
visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 06/2036Z. Further analysis will
be conducted as more images become available to determine
geoeffectiveness. A filament eruption was observed in SDO AIA 193
imagery around 05/1945Z near N12W10. The CME was first visible in
STEREO COR 2 imagery at 05/2039Z. The majority of the ejecta appears
to be north of the ecliptic plane, however, there is a weak
Earth-directed component. A model run is in progress to determine
geoeffectiveness. The Penticton 10 cm Flux value was estimated due
to flare enhancement.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event for the next
three days (07-09 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active for the past 24
hours due to effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods on day one
(07 June) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (08-09 June)
as effects from the CH HSS begin to subside.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 140
Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 06 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 011/015-007/012-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 40/30/15
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_60690_f06d92ac-51ed-4d3e-bd4f-688bcdc209a4
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_60690_f06d92ac-51ed-4d3e-bd4f-688bcdc209a4--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
