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CX2SA > SWPC 02.06.12 00:21l 63 Lines 2591 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 60889-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<ON4HU<CX2SA
Sent: 120601/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:60889 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:60889-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. C-class flares were observed
from both Region 1493 (N14E49) and newly numbered Region 1498
(N07E69). The largest flare was a C2/1F at 01/1710Z from Region
1498, a Cso type group with a beta magnetic configuration. Region
1493 was the largest region on the disk, occupying 170 millionths
and classified as a Dho type group with a beta magnetic
configuration. New Regions 1496 (N16E59) and 1497 (S22E34) were
also numbered yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three
days (02-04 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. A solar
sector boundary change, from positive to negative, was observed at
the ACE spacecraft between 01/01Z and 03Z. Solar wind speed was
around 350 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin at quiet levels on day 1 (2 June). An increase to
unsettled to active levels is expected on days 2 and 3 (3-4 June)
with the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The
coronal hole high speed stream will also bring a slight chance for
isolated minor storm conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 129
Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 01 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 004/005-009/010-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/35
Minor storm 01/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 05/30/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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