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CX2SA > SWPC 19.05.12 23:19l 58 Lines 2287 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 60431-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 120519/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:60431 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:60431-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only a few weak C-class flares
were observed from old Region 1476 (N10, L=180) and Region 1479
(N15W39). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days 1 -
3 (20 - 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 17/0210Z and reached a
peak flux of 255 pfu at 17/0430Z, ended at 18/1620Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day 1 (20 May). Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day 2 (21 May). Quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods are expected on day 3 (22 May)
as a coronal hole high speed stream and the 18 May CME are expected
to become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 131
Predicted 20 May-22 May 135/130/130
90 Day Mean 19 May 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 006/005-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/25
Minor storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor storm 05/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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