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CX2SA > SWPC 19.05.12 00:23l 65 Lines 2782 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 60397-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE3UIL<CX2SA
Sent: 120518/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:60397 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:60397-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare
was a C3 at 18/0823Z from old Region 1476 (N10, L=180), which
rotated off the disk. A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA
304 imagery beginning at 18/0510Z near Region 1482 (N15W17). An
associated CME was observed in STEREO A COR 2 imagery beginning at
18/0709Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of approximately 482
km/s. The majority of the ejecta appeared to be slightly north of
the ecliptic plane, however a glancing blow is likely.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare all three days
(19 - 21 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 100 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at
17/0200Z, reached a maximum of 20.4 pfu at 17/0230Z and ended at
17/1725Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is currently
hovering close to the 10 pfu threshold (S1).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods on day 1 (19 May) due to a possible shock arrival from the
17 May CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (20
May). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (21 May).
There is a slight chance for shock enhancement of the greater than
10 MeV protons above 10 pfu on day 1.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May-21 May
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 20/05/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 May 132
Predicted 19 May-21 May 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 18 May 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 009/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/05
Minor storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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