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OK0NAG > SOLAR 15.05.12 00:01l 242 Lines 8064 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1476 (N09W46) remains
the largest and most active complex on the solar disk, but has also
shown signs of decay. Two CMEs were observed off the east limb
during the period, but neither appears to have a potential earthward
component.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be very
low to low during the period. A slight chance for an M-class flare
exists and will likely remain so, until Region 1476 either rotates
off the west limb or exhibits further decay.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with intermittent active
periods observed during nighttime (North America) hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day 1 (15 May), with the
anticipated arrival of a CME observed on 12 May. Residual unsettled
conditions are possible on day 2 (16 May), before a full recovery to
mostly quiet conditions is forecast for day 3 (17 May).
III. Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 130
Predicted 15 May-17 May 130/130/128
90 Day Mean 14 May 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 010/012-008/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/10
Minor storm 15/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/20/10
Minor storm 20/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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