| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 13.05.12 23:04l 292 Lines 9801 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : D5MOK0NAG00I
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 120513/2204z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 13 May 2012 22:04:23 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1336946375-03b34842c212d3c0001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 13 May 2012 22:04:27.0984 (UTC) FILETIME=[5D884D00:01CD3154]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.157
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.96866Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1336946375
----boundary_657540_29412ccb-ea95-4411-aa13-245cdc12043c
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1476 (N09W33) continues to be the most dominant region
on the disk with an area of 840 millionths and is magnetically
classified as beta-gamma-delta. However, Region 1476 is currently in
a decay phase and only producing C-class x-ray events. Region 1479
(N15E40) was split into two sunspot groups after magnetogram
analysis, with the leader group retaining the Region 1479 number,
and the trailer group being numbered Region 1482 (N14E51). Three new
regions were also numbered today, Region 1481 (S10E61), Region 1483
(S27E51) and Region 1484 (N10E75).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(14 - 16 May) as Region 1476 continues to rotate towards the west
limb of the solar disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated periods at minor storm levels observed at high latitudes.
Measurements, by the ACE spacecraft, indicate the waning effects of
the latest coronal hole high speed stream, as solar wind speeds
decreased from 600 km/s to around 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods on day one (14 May), as a CME, observed leaving the solar
disk on 12 May, is forecasted to become geoeffective. Most of the
mass of this CME event is expected to miss Earth, thus quiet to
unsettled levels with a chance of active levels, are also expected
on day two (15 May). As effects of the CME wane, a return to quiet
to unsettled levels is expected on day three (16 May).
III. Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 131
Predicted 14 May-16 May 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 13 May 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 007/010-014/012-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/10
Minor storm 05/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/35/20
Minor storm 15/25/10
Major-severe storm 01/10/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_657540_29412ccb-ea95-4411-aa13-245cdc12043c
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_657540_29412ccb-ea95-4411-aa13-245cdc12043c--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
