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CX2SA > SWPC 06.05.12 23:21l 64 Lines 2658 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 59980-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<PY1AYH<PY1AYH<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 120506/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:59980 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:59980-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours with three impulsive, low level M-class events observed
from Region 1476 (N10E63). The largest event was an M1/1n at
06/1747Z. Region 1476 has rotated further into view and is now
classified as a Fhi/beta-gamma sunspot group with an area of around
760 millionths. Three filament eruptions were also observed in the
past 24 hours, but none appear to have an earthward directed
component. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (07 - 09 May) as
Region 1476 continues to evolve and rotate further onto the visible
disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07
- 08 May) due to a solar sector boundary crossing and the possible
arrival of a CME, observed lifting off the solar disk on 05 May. A
slight increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for an
active period is expected on day three (09 May) as a corotating
interactive region, in front of a high speed solar wind stream, is
expected to arrive here at Earth.
III. Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 117
Predicted 07 May-09 May 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 06 May 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 007/008-007/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/40
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 15/15/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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