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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.05.12 12:03l 106 Lines 4007 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly Ri Report
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Subject: Monthly Ri Report
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
April 2012 : 55.2 (fifty-five point two)
Maximum : 108 on 20 // Minimum : 9 on 9
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for April 2012 :
1.. 42 6.. 34 11.. 19 16.. 39 21..104 26.. 75
2.. 51 7.. 19 12.. 37 17.. 51 22.. 94 27.. 68
3.. 46 8.. 16 13.. 35 18.. 72 23.. 89 28.. 72
4.. 41 9.. 9 14.. 33 19.. 95 24.. 86 29.. 71
5.. 34 10.. 10 15.. 58 20..108 25.. 81 30.. 67
70 cooperating stations on May 1, 10 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for October 2011 : 59.9 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2011 Nov 63 62 2012 May 75 79 2012 Nov 94 92
Dec 68 64 Jun 78 82 Dec 97 93
2012 Jan 66 67 Jul 81 84 2013 Jan 101 93
Feb 68 71 Aug 84 86 Feb 103 94
Mar 70 73 Sep 86 88 Mar 105 93
Apr 73 76 Oct 90 90 Apr 105 92
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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