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CX2SA > SWPC 27.04.12 23:22l 63 Lines 2602 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 59648-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<VE3UIL<LZ3NP<CX2SA
Sent: 120427/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:59648 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:59648-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Apr 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M1/1n
flare at 27/0824Z from Region 1466 (N11W38). Other activity
consisted of single, low-level C-class flares from Regions 1459
(S19W88), 1465 (S17W53), 1467 (N11E32), 1469 (S24E28) and 1466.
During the period, Region 1465 developed into a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration while the remaining regions showed little
change. Numerous non-Earth directed CMEs were observed off the SW
limb over the past 24 hours, all originating from old Region 1462
(S25, L=139) which rotated around the west on 24 April.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days
(28 - 30 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Through the
period, ACE solar wind velocities steadily decreased from about 560
km/s to near 500km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was variable between +/-4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next three days
(28 - 30 April).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Apr 118
Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 115/110/110
90 Day Mean 27 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 017/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/10/01
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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