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CX2SA > SWPC 19.04.12 23:21l 62 Lines 2512 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 59337-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<PY1AYH<PY1AYH<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 120419/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:59337 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:59337-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Apr 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C7 x-ray flare at 19/1126Z associated with Types II and IV
radio sweeps and a non-Earth-directed CME. This event may have
originated in old Region 1455 (N05, L=206), now about two days
beyond the west limb. Regions 1460 (N16W01) and 1463 (S26W49) each
produced a low-level C-class flare. Region 1460 showed spot growth
in its intermediate portion. Region 1462 (S24W31) produced a C1
flare at 19/1515Z associated with a CME that may have had an
Earthward component. Further analysis is required to determine if
the CME is likely to be geoeffective. New Region 1464 (N23E01,
Bxo-Beta) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (20 - 22 April) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (20 April) with
a chance for brief active levels due to a recurrent solar sector
boundary crossing. Quiet levels are expected during days 2- 3 (21 -
22 April).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 138
Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 19 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 007/008-004/005-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/15/15
Minor storm 15/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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