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CX2SA > SWPC 15.04.12 23:23l 59 Lines 2392 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 58911-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<DB0RES<WA7V<CX2SA
Sent: 120415/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:58911 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:58911-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Two low-level
C-class flares occurred from a source beyond the northeast limb.
Region 1459 (S16E64) produced occasional B-class flares while it
rotated more fully into view as a Dai-type group with a beta
magnetic classification. Region 1455 (N05W46) showed intermediate
spot development during the period and was classified as a Dsi-type
with a beta magnetic classification. Small Axx-type Region 1454
(S12W00) produced a B9 x-ray flare at 15/0908Z associated with a
slow partial-halo CME, which is not expected to be geoeffective. No
new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (16 - 18 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity decreased to mostly quiet levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during the period (16 - 18 April).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 102
Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 15 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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