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CX2SA > SWPC 15.04.12 00:21l 63 Lines 2619 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 58746-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<PY1AYH<PY1AYH<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 120414/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:58746 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:58746-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1455 (N06W34)
produced occasional B-class x-ray flares during the first half of
the period. Region 1455 showed minor spot and penumbral decay during
the period and simplified from a beta-gamma to a beta magnetic
classification. New Regions 1458 (N07E70) and 1459 (S15E79) were
numbered. Neither were remarkable, but analysis was hampered due to
limb proximity. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during
the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low during days 1 - 3 (15 - 17 April) with a chance for isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. ACE solar
wind observations indicated the continued presence of a coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS) with speeds in the 499 to 614 km/s range.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (15 April) with
a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS effects.
Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during days
2 - 3 (16 - 17 April) as the CH HSS subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 098
Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 14 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 013/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 010/010-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/20/20
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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