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CX2SA > SWPC 13.04.12 23:21l 62 Lines 2623 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 58549-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<ON4HU<CX2ACB<CX2SA
Sent: 120413/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:58549 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:58549-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Apr 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1455 (N07W19)
produced occasional B-class x-ray flares. It showed gradual spot and
penumbral growth during the period as well as a mix of polarities in
its intermediate and trailer portions, which indicated a beta-gamma
magnetic structure. New Region 1457 (N22E41) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low during days 1 - 3 (14 - 16 April) with a chance for isolated
C-class flares from Region 1455.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels
with a brief period of major storm at high latitudes. The increased
field activity was associated with a persistent coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar winds speeds gradually increased
during the first half of the period (maximum speed 693 km/s at
13/0846Z), then gradually decreased during the second half of the
period (minimum speed 544 km/s at 13/1941Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (14 -
15 April) with a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS
effects. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on
day 3 (16 April) as the CH HSS subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 098
Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 13 Apr 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 007/012-010/012-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor storm 20/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor storm 25/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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