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CX2SA > SWPC 10.04.12 23:21l 56 Lines 2194 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 58145-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<ON4HU<CX2ACB<CX2SA
Sent: 120410/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:58145 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:58145-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Apr 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. A new region, Region 1454 (S13E70), was numbered today as
it rotated onto the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (11 - 13 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
varied around 320 - 360 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 April) as
effects from a CME, observed on 7 April, are possible. Quiet to
unsettled levels with a chance for active levels are expected on
days two and three (12 - 13 April) as a coronal hole high speed
stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 093
Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 10 Apr 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 007/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 007/008-008/012-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/30
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/35/35
Minor storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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