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CX2SA > SWPC 09.04.12 23:24l 60 Lines 2507 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 58011-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<CX2SA
Sent: 120409/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:58011 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:58011-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Apr 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours with two C-class events observed. Region 1450 (N15W90)
produced a C2 event at 0122Z. Around the vicinity of plage Region
1451 (N17W73), a C3 x-ray event was observed at 1244Z. Associated
with this event were both a Type II radio sweep, with an estimated
plane of sky velocity of 767 km/s and a west-limb CME, first visible
in LASCO C2 imagery at 1325Z. Initial analysis indicates the CME,
associated with this event, is non-Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares for the next
three days (10 - 12 April) as Regions 1452 (N18W51) and 1451
continue to weaken and rotate off the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 April) and at quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (11-12 April), as possible
CME effects and the arrival of elevated solar wind from a favorable
positioned coronal hole arrive.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 095
Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 09 Apr 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/25
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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