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CX2SA > SWPC 09.04.12 00:24l 59 Lines 2378 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 57850-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<DB0RES<WA7V<CX2SA
Sent: 120408/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:57850 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:57850-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares
occurred. A filament erupted from the northwest quadrant during
approximately 07/1825 - 1900Z. The eruption was associated with a
partial-halo CME with an estimated plane of sky speed of 690 km/s.
Most of the CME mass appeared to be directed southwestward of Earth
and is not expected to be significantly geoeffective. No new regions
were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low during days 1 - 3 (09 - 11 April) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels on day 1 (09 April) with a chance
for active levels due to a CME passage that is expected to begin
early in the day. There will also be a chance for minor storm levels
at high latitudes on day 1. Field activity is expected to decrease
to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3 (10 - 11 April).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 093
Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 08 Apr 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 003/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 013/015-006/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor storm 35/10/25
Major-severe storm 30/05/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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