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CX2SA > SWPC 07.04.12 23:23l 65 Lines 2766 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 57725-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<DB0RES<WA7V<CX2SA
Sent: 120407/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:57725 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:57725-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1452 (N17W23) produced a
C2 x-ray flare and occasional B-class flares. It gradually decayed
to a small B-type group during the period. Region 1450 (N15W59)
gradually decayed to a C-type group during the period and produced
an isolated B-class flare. However, it retained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during days 1 - 3 (08 - 10 April) with isolated C-class
flares likely from Region 1452.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with minor to major storm
periods at high latitudes during 07/0900 - 1500Z. This activity was
associated with a period of sustained southward IMF Bz, enhanced IMF
Bt, and increased solar wind speeds.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels until late on day 1 (08
April). A CME passage is expected to commence late on day 1 (from
the partial-halo CME observed on 05 April). Consequently, activity
is expected to increase to unsettled levels beginning late on day 1
and continue until early on day 3 (10 April). There will also be a
chance for active levels on day 2 (09 April) along with a chance for
minor storm levels at high latitudes. Activity is expected to
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 as CME effects
subside.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 099
Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 07 Apr 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 008/010-013/015-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/10
Minor storm 01/15/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/30/15
Minor storm 10/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/10/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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