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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Tue, 20 May 2008 22:01:39 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 May 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The two spotted regions on the disk were quiet
and stable,
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A small increase in
solar wind speed from around 360 km/s up to about 440 km/s occurred
between 1200-1400Z. The solar wind signatures are consistent with a
high speed stream from a coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods for the first day (21 May) as the high speed stream is
expected to continue. Observations of the solar wind at the Stereo-B
spacecraft suggest that the solar wind velocity should increase to
around 550-600 km/s. Activity levels are expected to decline to
unsettled levels with occasional active periods for the second day
(22 May) and should be predominantly unsettled for the third day (23
May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May-23 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 May 069
Predicted 21 May-23 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 20 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 015/025-008/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/25
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/40/40
Minor storm 35/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/10
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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