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CX2SA > SWPC 05.04.12 23:24l 59 Lines 2368 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 57455-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<CX2SA
Sent: 120405/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:57455 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:57455-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels for the past 24 hours.
Region 1450 (N15W31) produced a B9 flare at 05/1327Z and a C3/1f
flare at 05/1624Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares likely for the next three days (06-08 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours with minor to severe storm periods at high latitudes. The
increased activity was associated with periods of sustained
southward IMF Bz and increased IMF Bt associated with intermittent
solar sector boundary changes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (6 April) due to the
weak CME that was associated with the filament eruption that
occurred on 02 April. The field is expected to return to quiet
levels on day two (7 April), then be at quiet to unsettled levels
due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective on day
three (8 April).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 101
Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 105/110/115
90 Day Mean 05 Apr 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 007/008-006/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 10/05/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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