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CX2SA > SWPC 03.04.12 23:22l 58 Lines 2320 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 57175-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<ON4HU<CX2ACB<CX2SA
Sent: 120403/2220Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:57175 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:57175-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Apr 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours.
Region 1450 (N16W04) produced two B4 flare events, one at 02/2220Z
and the other at 03/1228Z. A weak CME associated with a filament
eruption near N30E11, became visible on LASCO C2 imagery at
02/2348Z. This CME has a northerly trajectory and is not expected
to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class flares for the next three days (04-06
April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (04-05 April)
due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective on 04
April, followed by the anticipated arrival of a weak CME associated
with the filament eruption that occurred at 02/0224Z. Day three (06
April) is expected to return to quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 104
Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 100/110/115
90 Day Mean 03 Apr 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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