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CX2SA > SWPC 02.04.12 00:22l 63 Lines 2659 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 56894-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IV3SCP<SR1BSZ<ON4HU<CX2ACB<CX2SA
Sent: 120401/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:56894 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:56894-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Apr 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Only minor B-class/Sf
flares were observed, one from Region 1444 (N21W86) at 31/2107 and
from 1450 (N17E22) at 01/1454Z. The event from Region 1444 was
associated with a narrow eruption visible in SDO/AIA 304 imagery.
The ejecta is not expected to be geoeffective. The remaining
regions were quiet and magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for a C-class flare for the first
two days of the period (02-03 April). The probability of a C class
event increases on Day 3 (04 April) with the anticipated return of
Old Region 1434 (S22 L=207).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagneic field was quiet. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE
spacecraft gradually declined from around 380 km/s at the beginning
of the period to about 320 km/s by the end. At approximately
01/0800Z, ACE indicated a solar sector boundary crossing to a
negative orientation accompanied by increased density and slight (-5
nT) southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin the period at quiet levels. On Day 3 (04 April),
it will become unsettled with the possiblity of an isolated active
period as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M 05/05/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 107
Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 110/115/125
90 Day Mean 01 Apr 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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