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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.04.12 18:34l 107 Lines 4026 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly Ri Report
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Subject: Monthly Ri Report
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
March 2012 : 64.2 (sixty-four point two)
Maximum : 86 on 11, 12 // Minimum : 18 on 1
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for March 2012 :
1.. 18 6.. 85 11.. 86 16.. 63 21.. 57 26.. 65 31.. 66
2.. 20 7.. 79 12.. 86 17.. 65 22.. 52 27.. 62
3.. 47 8.. 72 13.. 71 18.. 46 23.. 53 28.. 65
4.. 64 9.. 82 14.. 63 19.. 55 24.. 70 29.. 79
5.. 80 10.. 77 15.. 65 20.. 64 25.. 66 30.. 66
70 cooperating stations on April 1, 15 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for September 2011 : 59.5 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2011 Oct 61 62 2012 Apr 84 78 2012 Oct 110 91
Nov 66 65 May 88 81 Nov 114 92
Dec 70 67 Jun 93 84 Dec 119 93
2012 Jan 73 70 Jul 97 86 2013 Jan 122 93
Feb 76 73 Aug 101 88 Feb 124 94
Mar 80 76 Sep 105 89 Mar 126 93
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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