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CX2SA > SWPC 31.03.12 23:24l 55 Lines 2360 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 56727-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<DB0RES<PI8CDR<GB7YEW<N9PMO<CX2SA
Sent: 120331/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:56727 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:56727-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single C1/Sf flare was
observed from Region 1451 (N17E53) at 30/2112Z. New Region 1451 was
a simple Cro type group with a beta magnetic configuration. New
Region 1450 (N15E38) was also numbered and also a Cro type group
with beta magnetic characteristics. The remaining regions were
quiet and magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. An isolated C-class flare is likely with a
slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft ranged from around 450 km/s at the beginning of the period to 350 km/s at the end of the period. Bz was generally neutral. ACE data suggested a solar sector boundary crossing from negative to positive sector around 31/14Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagentic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (01-03
April).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 110
Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 115/115/120
90 Day Mean 31 Mar 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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