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CX2SA > SWPC 28.03.12 23:21l 59 Lines 2420 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 56224-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IV3SCP<SR1BSZ<ON4HU<CX2ACB<CX2SA
Sent: 120328/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:56224 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:56224-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 088 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels. There were
four B-class flares over the past 24 hours. Latest images show a new
front-sided CME near the end of the period associated with a
filament eruption.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-flare. Old Region 1429 (N19, L=299)
is expected to rotate onto the solar disk midday on 29 March, which
should increase M-class flare probabilities. New Region 1448
(S18E55) was numbered today and is an A-class spot group.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels early in the
period, but dropped to quiet levels over the later part of the
period. ACE data indicated an increase in solar wind speeds and a
drop in density consistent with effects from a favorably positioned
negative polarity coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 29 March due to persistence.
Quiet levels are expected for days two and three (30 and 31 March).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Mar 107
Predicted 29 Mar-31 Mar 110/115/120
90 Day Mean 28 Mar 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar 015/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 007/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/05/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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