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OK0NAG > SOLAR 27.03.12 23:04l 242 Lines 8165 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels. Region 1444
(N21W17) produced a C5/1f flare at 27/0308Z. Region 1442 (N12W13)
produced a C2 flare at 26/2338Z and a C1/Sf flare at 27/0430Z. SOHO
LASCO observed a full asymmetric halo CME at 26/2312Z which was
associated with Type II & Type IV radio sweeps. This CME was
determined to be a backsided event and should not be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare. Old Region 1429 (N19,
L=299) is expected to return to the solar disk midday on 29 March,
which should increase M-class flare probabilities. New Region 1447
(S25W55) was numbered today and is a small C-type spot group.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE data
indicate a solar sector boundary crossing during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 28 March to 29
March, due to a favorably positioned negative polarity coronal hole.
Quiet levels are expected on the third day (30 March).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M 30/35/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 106
Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 110/120/120
90 Day Mean 27 Mar 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 013/015-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/05
Minor storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 30/35/15
Major-severe storm 50/30/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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