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CX2SA > SWPC 26.03.12 00:25l 67 Lines 2922 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 55735-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<DB0RES<DK0WUE<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 120325/2221Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:55735 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:55735-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C3/1n flare was observed
from Region 1444 (N19E11) at 25/0028Z. This was followed by dimming
in SDO/AIA 193 imagery north of Region 1444 at 25/0034Z. At
25/0448Z, a CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
emerging from the northeast limb . A C2 flare occurred at 25/0157Z
from Region 1445 (S24E52). Material was seen lifting off the
southeast limb near Region 1445 at 25/0138Z in SDO/AIA 304 imagery.
At 25/0512Z, a CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
emerging from the southeast limb. Neither CME is expected to be
particularly geoeffective. Region 1445 grew substantially over the
past 24 hours and was classified as an Fho type group with beta
magnetic characteristics. New Region 1446 (N23W27) was numbered
today and classified as a small Bxo type group with beta magnetic
characteristics.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class flare. Old Region 1429 (N19, L=295) is
expected to return late on Day 3 (28 March), further increasing the
possibility of an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed, measured at the
ACE spacecraft, decreased over the past 24 hours and ended the
period around 370 km/s. Bz was generally neutral.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for Days 1 and 2 (26-27 March), increasing to
unsettled to active conditions on Day 3 (28 March) as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M 35/35/45
Class X 05/05/10
Proton 01/01/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 101
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 006/005-006/005-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/35
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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