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CX2SA > SWPC 24.03.12 22:45l 54 Lines 2149 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 55531-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Forecast - Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<VE3UIL<LZ3NP<CX2SA
Sent: 120324/2037Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:55531 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:55531-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Newly numbered Region
1445 (S24E76) rotated onto the solar disk and produced an M1 flare
at 23/1940Z as well as a C6 flare at 23/1639Z. Region 1444 (N21E37)
was numbered overnight, but is small and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate, mainly due to additional activity from Region 1445.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was initially unsettled, but decreased to quiet
levels after 23/0300Z. The elevated activity was caused by a solar
sector boundary crossing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (24-26 March).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 105
Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 110/115/120
90 Day Mean 23 Mar 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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