| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 17.03.12 23:05l 288 Lines 9726 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : H3MOK0NAG00F
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG
Sent: 120317/2201z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 17 Mar 2012 22:01:38 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1332021460-03b3482782195c00001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 17 Mar 2012 22:01:34.0884 (UTC) FILETIME=[84CF9640:01CD0489]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.137
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.91508Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1332021460
----boundary_681310_0ac0af97-9876-46c2-91e0-eb3c4049f6cd
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1435 (S26W37)
grew rapidly overnight ending the period as a Dro type group with
beta magnetic characteristics. Nearby Region 1434 (S22W27) produced
an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 17/2039Z. This flare was accompanied
by a Type II radio sweep (1140 km/s). A northward directed wave was
visible in SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Region 1432 (N14W39), currently a
Cro type group with beta magnetic characteristics, produced a C1
flare at 17/0312, but was generally quiet overnight. New Region
1437 (S34E15) was numbered today. It and the remaining regions were
small, magnetically simple, and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare all three days (18-20
March), particularly from the vicinity of Regions 1434 and 1435.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels with
isolated minor to major storm levels observed at high latitudes.
This activity was in response to the continued presence of a high
speed solar wind stream. Solar wind speed, measured at the ACE
spacecraft, remained around 650 km/s while Bz ranged between +5 and
-5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to begin at unsettled levels and increase to active to
isolated minor storm levels on Day 1 (18 March) as a CME from 15
March arrives. Activity levels are expected to be predominantly
active on Day 2 (19 March), declining to unsettled levels on Day 3
(20 March) as effects from the CME subside. Analysis of the M1/Sf
flare is ongoing to determine if it was associated with an
Earth-directed CME.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 102
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 017/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 018/025-015/020-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/05
Minor storm 20/15/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/20/10
Major-severe storm 35/25/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_681310_0ac0af97-9876-46c2-91e0-eb3c4049f6cd
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_681310_0ac0af97-9876-46c2-91e0-eb3c4049f6cd--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
