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OK0NAG > SOLAR 14.03.12 15:00l 117 Lines 4437 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Mar 14 1251 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU074
UGEOA 30512 20314 1228/ 9930/
12142 22142 37142
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 14 Mar 2012 until 16 Mar
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 027
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at active levels with a
risk of an isolated M class flare from NOAA AR 1429. C flares are likely
from ARs 1432 and 1433, with a small risk of M class flare from NOAA
AR1433. A M7.9 flare occurred on March 13th in NOAA AR 1429, peaking at
1741 UT. It is associated with a mild proton event still in progress for
>10MeV protons. A fast CME (>1400 km/s) was observed. It is expected
that the bulk of the CME will not encountered the Earth, and therefore
that geomagnetic effects should be minimum. If any, they should be
observed by the end of March 15th. In addition a coronal hole is
expected to become geoeffective by that time, triggering isolated minor
storm conditions. Geomagnetic activity is therefore expected to reach
minor storm level by the end of March 15th, or during the course of
March 16th.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 063, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20314 1228/ 13///
1//// 21411 3010/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
13 1712 1741 1825 N17W66 M7.9 II/3 65
1429
END
UGEOR 30512 20314 1228/ 14/08 14105
10065 2//// 3//// 4522/ 50130 60010 46617 28630
10066 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 21023 00000
10067 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50100 60027 11013 03000
10068 2//// 3//// 472// 50030 60004 22120 00000
10069 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50100 60016 12912 04200
99999
USSPS 32404 13070 08022 44041 45319 31512 46003 47222 1/801 48007
12514 24411 49009 14712 21304 50005 24122 21402
USSPS 31405 14088 10842 65013 46617 24510 66001 21023 0/101 67010
11013 22327 68003 22120 2/904 69010 12912 25416
UMAGF 30503 20314 1004/ 13069 1/014 22122 32231
UMAGF 31523 20314 ///// 1300/ 1/010 24312 32222
UCMEO 93001 20313 1930/ 20313 61736 91930 3051/ 304// 333// 31898
20313 61709 81824 46117 11429 1112/ 99999 PLAIN
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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