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OK0NAG > SOLAR 08.03.12 14:21l 132 Lines 5121 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Mar 08 1215 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU068
UGEOA 30512 20308 1211/ 9930/
12082 24082 37082
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 08 Mar 2012 until 10 Mar
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 064
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 028
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 008
COMMENT: The photospheric magnetic field configuration of Catania
sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) somewhat stabilized, although it still
remains a beta-gamma-delta active region. Another X-class flare is still
possible in this active region, although with a smaller probability
compared to that two days ago. Due to the Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA
AR 1429) position close to the solar central meridian, another
Earth-directed CME and SEP release would be probable, also in case of an
M-class flare. An interplanetary shock wave was detected by ACE at 10:45
UT today. Although ACE plasma data is still corrupted due to the ongoing
major SEP event and no SOHO/CELIAS data is currently available to
confirm that it is indeed a shock that is detected, there is little
doubt that this is the start of the interplanetary disturbance produced
by the full halo CME observed on the Sun on March 7. The interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude in the wake of the shock is elevated (30-40
nT), but the IMF north-south component is directed northward. Its turn
to the south is not excluded, so a major (K = 7 or even higher)
geomagnetic storm is expected. The major SEP event is still ongoing,
with the flux of protons peaking around the shock arrival. We expect the
proton event to continue further on for at least another day.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 063, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20308 1211/ 07///
1//// 21361 3037/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 20308 1211/ 08/10 08104
10062 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 36527 01000
10063 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50200 60015 30915 17200
10064 2//// 3//// 4432/ 50160 60015 40619 16100
10065 2//// 3//// 4552/ 50830 60039 10917 29644
99999
USSPS 32404 07080 10232 43025 20517 34417 44129 12518 57525 46015
10921 27417 47003 35527 21403
USSPS 21305 07174 10042 47034 30116 51414 48131 12018 57432 49030
10522 51413 50001 36022 0/101
USSPS 81202 07020 09722 49015 11220 24319 48121 12717 57429 46030
20818 24419
USSPS 81202 08131 11722 48154 11517 57437 46024 10120 24419 49026
30517 34419 50002 36030 01202
USSPS 31405 08106 11242 62001 36527 01203 63020 30915 24415 64016
40619 34415 65083 10917 55539
UMAGF 30503 20308 1004/ 07062 1/044 24444 35421
UMAGF 31523 20308 ///// 0700/ 1/037 23454 34465
UCMEO 93001 20307 1630/ 20307 60024 80318 0521/ 051// 333// 32405
20307 60006 80042 12117 11429 1112/ 99999 PLAIN UCMEO 93001 20307
1700/ 20307 60136 80430 0901/ 089// 333// 32544 20307 60106 80130
12117 11429 1112/ 99999 PLAIN
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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