| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 07.03.12 23:08l 384 Lines 13202 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 73MOK0NAG00F
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG
Sent: 120307/2205z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 7 Mar 2012 22:05:28 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1331157832-03b3482782144a0001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 07 Mar 2012 22:05:21.0765 (UTC) FILETIME=[63E96150:01CCFCAE]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.141
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.90564Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1331157832
----boundary_194832_523f6d30-fac3-4b9c-9f18-0b8f810c5062
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Mar 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1429 (N17E15) produced
an X5/3B long-duration flare with maximum at 07/0024Z. The event was
associated with type II and type IV radio sweeps and a full halo,
though slightly asymmetric coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME had
an estimated plane of sky speed of about 2200 km/s. During the decay
of the X5 x-ray event, Region 1430 (N21W00) produced an X1/Sf at
0114Z. Region 1429 dominates the disk with an area of about 1300
millionths. Observations show slight separation of the central spots
but the region continues to be large and magnetically complex;
multiple deltas are clearly evident as well as a dominant east-west
polarity inversion line. Region 1430 showed steady growth during the
past 24 hours. Region 1428 (S17W05) also showed growth during the
period but was relatively quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class level activity is expected to continue and
there continues to be a good chance for an additional major flare
and/or proton producing event from Region 1429. In addition, the
growth trend in 1430 suggests that it may also contribute to the
M-flare activity during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. Activity levels were initially quiet to unsettled
until an interplanetary shock arrived. The shock was seen at ACE at
07/0334Z and was followed by a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at
Earth at 07/0421Z. Although solar wind speeds did not increase
greatly, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and density did
increase markedly and the Bz component had numerous intervals of
fairly strong southward orientation (with the strongest negative
intervals at about -15 to -20 nT). Geomagnetic activity increased to
minor to major storm levels following the SSC with some periods of
severe storm levels at high latitudes. The disturbance most likely
originated from the X1/halo CME that occurred on 05 March. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event began at 07/0500Z and has reached a peak so
far of 1630 PFU at 1540Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event also
occurred, beginning at 07/0405Z and reaching an apparent maximum of
69 PFU at 07/1525Z. Both of these events continue in progress and
are clearly associated with today's X5/Full halo CME event.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active initially on day 1 (08 March) but is expected
to increase to major storm levels with a likelihood for isolated
severe storm levels after the arrival of the CME from today's
X5/full halo event. The arrival time is estimated to be sometime
between 0600-1000Z. Minor to major storm levels are expected to
continue partway (6-12 hours) into the second day (09 March), but a
decline to predominantly active levels is expected for the remainder
of the day. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the
third day (10 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue through the first day and is also likely to
continue partway through the second day. The greater than 100 Mev
proton event is expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 85/85/85
Class X 40/40/40
Proton 99/80/50
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 136
Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 07 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 036/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 047/075-018/028-007/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor storm 40/40/15
Major-severe storm 45/30/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/25/15
Minor storm 10/35/30
Major-severe storm 85/25/45
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_194832_523f6d30-fac3-4b9c-9f18-0b8f810c5062
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_194832_523f6d30-fac3-4b9c-9f18-0b8f810c5062--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
