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OK0NAG > SOLAR 06.03.12 15:03l 137 Lines 5558 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Mar 06 1258 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU066
UGEOA 30512 20306 1215/ 9930/
14062 22062 31062
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 06 Mar 2012 until 08 Mar
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 024
COMMENT: During the past 24 hours, Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR
1429) produced numerous C-class flares and seven M-class flares, the
strongest one being the M2.1 flare peaking at 19:16 UT yesterday. This
group has beta-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field,
which undergoes a very dynamic evolution. We expect another major flare
from Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429), which will be probably
accompanied by an Earth-directed CME and a proton event (due to the
group approaching the solar central meridian). The SEP flux at energies
above 10 MeV is elevated but still below the event threshold. We
nevertheless expect that the proton flux will eventually cross the SEP
event threshold. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 375 km/s)
solar wind flow with elevated (around 10 nT) interplanetary magnetic
field magnitude. Due to low solar wind speed, we expect quiet
geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours. On March 7-8 we expect the
arrival of an interplanetary disturbance (most probably only a
CME-driven shock) associated with the full halo CME on March 5. We
expect minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 083, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20306 1215/ 05///
10121 21321 3012/ 4//// 80506 90900
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
05 1910 1916 1921 N14E44 M2.1 1B 65
1429
05 1927 1930 1932 N14E44 M1.8 1B 65
1429
05 2226 2234 2242 N16E43 M1.3 65
1429
06 0022 0028 0031 N16E41 M1.3 SN 65
1429
06 0136 0144 0150 N16E41 M1.2 65
1429 Location taken from SolarSoft Events
06 0401 0405 0408 N16E39 M1.0 1N 65
1429
6 0752 0755 0800 N17E40 M1.0 65
1429 Taken from SolarSoft Events
END
UGEOR 30512 20306 1215/ 06/08 06106
10052 2//// 3//// 472// 50030 60001 47817 00000
10061 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60002 45030 02000
10062 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50040 60007 33827 01000
10063 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50210 60021 21715 15100
10064 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50060 60008 11919 17100
10065 2//// 3//// 4452/ 50820 60035 13618 49955
99999
USSPS 21305 05185 08832 41010 47317 4/801 47037 22417 54411 48073
14517 57412 49011 13020 31407 50005 33327 01207
USSPS 31405 06085 13442 52003 47817 2/901 61001 45030 01202 62004
33827 25407 63021 21715 24421 64006 11919 24408 65082 13618 55435
UMAGF 30503 20306 1004/ 05068 1/020 22211 33432
UMAGF 31523 20306 ///// 0500/ 1/012 23222 31244
UCMEO 93001 20305 1930/ 20305 60400 90618 0481/ 047// 333// 41587
20305 60333 80424 15217 11429 1112/ 99999 PLAIN UCMEO 93001 20305
2030/ 20304 61100 81542 0521/ 050// 333// 41362 20304 61100 81542
15716 11429 1112/ 99999 PLAIN
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