| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 05.03.12 15:27l 145 Lines 5684 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 53MOK0NAG00B
Read: GUEST
Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 120305/1324z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: Mon, 5 Mar 2012 13:23:53 GMT
Reply-to: sidctech@oma.be
X-barracuda-spam-score: 0.00
X-asg-debug-id: 1330953777-03b3480d61c6d460001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=0.00 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.573
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.90346Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
X-asg-orig-subj: GEOALERT SIDC
Precedence: special-delivery
X-authentication-warning: titus.oma.be: sidc set sender to sidctech@oma.be using -f
X-barracuda-start-time: 1330953777
:Issued: 2012 Mar 05 1322 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU065
UGEOA 30512 20305 1253/ 9930/
14052 20052 31052
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 05 Mar 2012 until 07 Mar
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 029
COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) situated around N20E60
produced an X1.1 flare this morning, peaking at 04:09 UT. It was
accompanied by coronal dimmings and a post-eruption arcade indicating
the eruption of a CME. The corresponding full halo CME first appeared in
the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 04:00 UT, propagating at a projected
plane of the sky speed of around 1300 km/s. We expect the CME-associated
interplanetary disturbance (most probably only a CME-driven shock due to
the source region position close to the limb) to arrive at the Earth on
March 7-8, possibly triggering a minor to moderate geomagnetic storm.
The eruption was associated with a strong radio flux in the metric
range. SEP flux at energies above 10 MeV is elevated as a result of the
halo CME and the CME associated with yesterday's M2.0 flare. The proton
flux will most probably cross the SEP event threshold in the coming
hours. Protons from both CMEs are delayed due to the eastern position of
the CME source region. Due to the beta-gamma-delta configuration of the
photospheric magnetic field of the Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR
1429) and its movement towards the solar central meridian, we expect
another major flare from this group, probably with an associated
Earth-directed CME and a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a
slow (around 350 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT)
interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic
conditions in the coming hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 072, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20305 1253/ 04///
1//// 21201 3014/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
04 1029 1052 1216 N19E61 M2.0 1N 2500 IV/2
65 1429
05 0230 0409 0443 N17E52 X1.1 2B 12000 CTM/1, VI/2 65 1429
END
UGEOR 30512 20305 1253/ 05/09 05106
10052 2//// 3//// 472// 50030 60001 46517 00000
10061 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 43730 00000
10062 2//// 3//// 4421/ 50040 60008 32526 02000
10063 2//// 3//// 4421/ 50150 60017 23015 15100
10064 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50040 60010 13219 15000
10065 2//// 3//// 4452/ 50630 60022 14718 49855
99999
USSPS 32404 04088 07422 36007 45317 2/801 42000 43615 0/102 43008
24617 21410 44074 16518 57409 45000 44713 0/102
USSPS 21305 04186 09632 48068 15817 54420 49002 14319 01203 47010
24018 31407 50001 31927 01203 46001 44215 0/102 41008 45718 2/801
USSPS 81202 05022 11922 39013 46116 2/801 50002 32428 01206 46013
23517 31418 49006 13720 14316 48081 15417 57428
USSPS 31405 05095 12132 52003 46517 2/901 61001 43730 01203 62004
32526 22408 63015 23015 22417 64004 13219 21310 65063 14718 54422
UMAGF 30503 20305 1004/ 04067 1/019 22222 34231
UMAGF 31523 20305 ///// 0400/ 1/014 23332 32243
INDAA 20227
1/024 01200 80160 47060 08101 6/033
2/005 01208 10240 12016 00502 4/022
3/020 03303 30080 02008 00801 2/016
4/008 03904 70470 25033 06703 8/038
5/024 02002 50160 39016 02002 0/023
6/012 00802 50210 08033 00801 2/016
7/033 02003 30210 25016 03801 2/025
END
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #
# #
# For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/xut. #
# Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments #
# and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use #
# that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #
# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
