| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 12.02.12 00:04l 275 Lines 9248 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : B2MOK0NAG00K
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 120211/2202z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 11 Feb 2012 22:02:00 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1328997617-03b3480d612e0370001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 11 Feb 2012 22:01:57.0459 (UTC) FILETIME=[C5CF0230:01CCE908]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.152
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.88275Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1328997617
----boundary_224070_826e994e-061e-40ed-b29c-a55fdad56b3c
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low due to a trio of C7 x-ray
events. Regions 1416 (S19W02) and 1417 (N16E44) each produced C7
events at 10/2352Z and 11/1854Z respectively. The third C7 event was
observed at 11/1004Z from behind the east limb near N25. The
activity behind the NE limb portends the return of old Region 1402
(N26, L=218). Region 1416 continued its growth phase, both in area
and spot count, and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
At about 10/1900Z, a 27 degree long segmented filament erupted in
the NE quadrant of the disk. The ENE to WSW oriented filament was
centered at N29E14. An associated CME was observed lifting of the NE
limb, first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 10/2012Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (12 - 14
February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar
wind speeds decreased steadily through the period from 450 km/s to
about 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field did not vary much beyond +/- 3 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12
- 13 February) due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Late
on day two and through day three (14 February), field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, with high
latitude minor storm intervals. This increase in activity is due to
anticipated effects from the 10 February CME.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M 30/50/50
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 112
Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 120/120/125
90 Day Mean 11 Feb 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 006/008-011/012-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/40
Minor storm 05/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/40/50
Minor storm 15/20/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_224070_826e994e-061e-40ed-b29c-a55fdad56b3c
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_224070_826e994e-061e-40ed-b29c-a55fdad56b3c--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
