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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.02.12 21:14l 108 Lines 4052 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly Ri Report
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Subject: Monthly Ri Report
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
January 2012 : 58.3 (fifty-eight point three)
Maximum : 95 on 16 // Minimum : 28 on 28
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for January 2012 :
1.. 44 6.. 70 11.. 39 16.. 95 21.. 69 26.. 30 31.. 46
2.. 57 7.. 70 12.. 32 17.. 87 22.. 67 27.. 40
3.. 74 8.. 64 13.. 44 18.. 78 23.. 70 28.. 28
4.. 78 9.. 49 14.. 73 19.. 65 24.. 53 29.. 35
5.. 67 10.. 43 15.. 92 20.. 63 25.. 47 30.. 38
68 cooperating stations on February 1, 20 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for July 2011 : 57.2 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2011 Aug 62 61 2012 Feb 98 87 2012 Aug 146 111
Sep 65 65 Mar 106 91 Sep 152 112
Oct 73 70 Apr 115 96 Oct 157 113
Nov 78 74 May 124 101 Nov 161 113
Dec 84 79 Jun 132 104 Dec 165 114
2012 Jan 90 83 Jul 140 108 2013 Jan 167 115
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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