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OK0NAG > SOLAR 28.01.12 13:33l 121 Lines 4367 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Jan 28 1228 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU028
UGEOA 30512 20128 1212/ 9930/
11282 20282 37282
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 28 Jan 2012 until 30 Jan
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 123 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 128 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be eruptive with C class flares
likely from NOAA AR 1402. There remains a risk for a M flare from this
AR. AR 1402 produced an X1.7 flare on Jan. 27, peaking at 1837UT,
accompanied by a fast halo CME and a proton event still in progress (10
and 50 MeV protons). The 100 MeV proton flux briefly crossed the 10 pfu
threshold late on Jan. 27. Due to the position of the AR close to the
west limb, it expected that the CME will not trigger any significant
geomagnetic disturbance. Therefore we forecast mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions for the next 48 hours, with some isolated periods of
unsettled conditions on Jan. 28 due to a coronal hole at a geoffective
position.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 032, BASED ON 04 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20128 1212/ 27///
10095 21421 3006/ 4//// 80507 90250
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
27 1737 1837 1856 N27W71 X1.7 1F 810 II/3,IV/2
21 1402
END
UGEOR 30512 20128 1212/ 27/08 28107
10021 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50040 60006 47929 16300
10029 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50100 60005 40208 00000
10031 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 47116 00000
10032 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 30120 00000
10033 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 23226 00000
10034 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 24418 00000
10035 2//// 3//// 472// 50070 60002 17219 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 27084 03722 13006 47929 21303 21007 40107 2/802 23015
17018 2/802
USSPS 21305 27172 04932 25015 16516 3/801 26001 16507 0/102 27001
22726 0/103 22010 40608 31303
UMAGF 30503 20128 1004/ 27064 1/011 22122 31122
UMAGF 31523 20128 ///// 2700/ 1/006 22132 32211
UCMEO 93001 20127 1930/ 20127 61827 91930 3122/ 311// 333// 52405
20127 61742 81905 48533 11402 1112/ 99999 PLAIN
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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