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OK0NAG > SOLAR 22.01.12 14:52l 124 Lines 4866 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Jan 22 1245 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU022
UGEOA 30512 20122 1228/ 9930/
11222 22222 38222
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 22 Jan 2012 until 24 Jan
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 141 / AP: 027
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 139 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jan 2012 10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 006
COMMENT: Catania sunspot groups 20 and 21 (NOAA ARs 1401 and 1402
respectively) continue to produce flaring activity on the C-level. We
expect more C-class flares, with an M-class flare possible but not very
likely. The Earth is currently downstream of the shock wave that arrived
at ACE at 05:15 UT today. The solar wind speed is now around 420 km/s
and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is around 20-25
nT. The north-south IMF component Bz is fluctuating between positive and
negative values as the Earth is still situated in the sheath region
between the shock and the ICME. No signatures of the ICME material are
yet detected by ACE. We expect at most a glancing blow from the ICME,
with geomagnetic conditions up to the minor or moderate storm level. The
SEP flux above 10 MeV is fluctuating below the event threshold, but
still significantly above the background level. We expect the proton
flux to decrease, although its increase up to the SEP event level is not
completely excluded.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 068, BASED ON 04 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20122 1228/ 21///
1//// 21420 3008/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 20122 1228/ 20/08 22109
10016 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 30321 00000
10018 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 32718 00000
10019 2//// 3//// 4432/ 50070 60015 40518 00000
10020 2//// 3//// 4542/ 50410 60031 10817 18200
10021 2//// 3//// 4442/ 50360 60014 11029 15100
10022 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60005 12213 00000
10023 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60002 43717 00000
10024 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 17518 00000
10025 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 28015 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 20098 07922 12033 11017 31521 13031 11130 51409 16002
12212 2/801 20005 40518 21408
USSPS 32404 21117 09932 12032 40417 21615 13040 40230 51408 16003
11112 21306 20006 41820 21408 21006 17804 2/801 22000 15914 0/101
USSPS 21305 21166 10932 14003 10713 11406 21001 15816 0/101 22018
17506 3/801 11040 40818 51626 10038 40430 31405 19006 42219 11410
USSPS 81202 22020 11032 21001 14818 0/102 22010 16810 31303 15001
40112 0/102 11026 41316 54522 20006 42715 21409 12030 41129 51312
UMAGF 30503 20122 1004/ 21060 1/009 21111 32212
UMAGF 31523 20122 ///// 2100/ 1/008 22312 32223
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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