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OK0NAG > SOLAR    20.01.12 14:54l 125 Lines 4875 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Jan 20 1248 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#


GEOALERT BRU020
UGEOA 30512 20120 1224/ 9930/
12202 22202 38202
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 20 Jan 2012 until 22 Jan 
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 153 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 153 / AP: 026
COMMENT: Catania sunspot groups 20 and 21 (NOAA ARs 1401 and 1402) are

the biggest groups on the solar disk. Flaring activity up to the M-level

is possible in any of the two groups. The flux of solar protons at
energies above 10 MeV started to rise, probably in association with the

propagating interplanetary shock wave driven by the CME on January 19.

At the moment the SEP flux did not pass the event threshold, although
this could occur later today or tomorrow. The Earth is currently inside

a slow (around 350 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 4 nT)
interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic
conditions in the coming hours. Late on January 21 - early on January 22

we expect a glancing blow from the halo CME on January 19 (possibly
interacting with the halo CME erupted on January 18). Minor to moderate

geomagnetic storm conditions are probable.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 064, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20120 1224/ 19///
10133 21570 3002/ 4//// 80008 90860
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania 
NOAA NOTE
19  1344  1605 1750 N32E22 M3.2 SF   100 CTM/1, IV/1            21 1402 
                    
END

UGEOR 30512 20120 1224/ 20/08 20109
10016 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 30321 00000
10018 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 32718 00000
10019 2//// 3//// 4432/ 50070 60015 40518 04100
10020 2//// 3//// 4542/ 50410 60031 10817 17310
10021 2//// 3//// 4442/ 50360 60014 11029 15200
10022 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60005 12213 00000
10023 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60002 43717 00000
10024 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 17518 00000
10025 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 28015 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 19091 09522 11001 21324 0/101 12042 12417 51518 13038 
12528 51407 16003 13612 2/801 19002 31520 11304 20001 10917 01204 
USSPS 21305 19186 08442 11062 11717 57623 10046 12330 51410 14003 
13113 11302 19005 10418 01209 
USSPS 31405 20086 16242 16001 30321 0/101 18001 32718 0/102 19007 
40518 35415 20041 10817 44531 21036 11029 45414 22003 12213 21305 
23001 43717 01202 24001 17518 0/101 25001 28015 0/101 
UMAGF 30503 20120 1004/ 19065 1/007 20101 31122 
UMAGF 31523 20120 ///// 1900/ 1/002 21101 30111 
UCMEO 93001 20119 1740/ 20118 61224 80606 0721/ 278// 123// 30718 
20118 60957 81357 22015 ///// 2212/ 99999 PLAIN 
 
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #

# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #

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