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OK0NAG > SOLAR 30.12.11 23:08l 237 Lines 7835 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Two M-class flares were
observed from Region 1389 (S22E44), an M2/Sf at 29/2151Z and a M1/Sn
at 30/0309Z. The region ended the period as an Ekc type group with
beta magnetic characteristics. The remaining regions were stable
and magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate levels, particularly from Region 1389,
for the next three days (31 December - 02 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed at the
ACE spacecraft was near 350 km/s. Bz at ACE was briefly southward
to -8 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for day one (31 December),
increasing to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active
conditions on days two and three (01-02 January). The increase in
activity is expected with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 141
Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 30 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 005/005-008/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/15/15
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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