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OK0NAG > SOLAR 29.12.11 15:42l 106 Lines 3650 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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* P F 2 0 1 2 *
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Solar-activity forecast for the period Dec 30, 2011 - Jan 5, 2012
Activity level: low to moderate
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 130-155 f.u.
Flares: weak (5-15/day), middle (0-3/period)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 70-110
Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague)
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Dec 30 2011 to Jan 5 2012
quiet: Jan 2 to 5
quiet to unsettled: Dec 31 and Jan 1
unsettled: Dec 30
active: 0
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
geomagnetic field was quiet from Dec 22 to 28.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation
Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
quiet: Jan 1, 3 - 4, 10 - 14, 20 - 24.
mostly quiet: Jan 25.
quiet to unsettled: Jan 2, 5 - 6, 8 - 9, 15, 17, 19.
quiet to active: Jan 7, 16, 26.
quiet to minor storm: -
quiet to major storm: -
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: Dec 31, Jan 18.
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: Dec 30.
minor to major storm: -
Survey: quiet: Dec 23 - 27.
mostly quiet: Dec 22, 28.
quiet to unsettled: Dec 21.
quiet to active: -
quiet to minor storm: -
quiet to major storm: -
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Notices:
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
Dec 30, Jan (6,) 8, (9,) 10, 14, (15 - 16,) 17 - 18, (20,)
22, (24,) 25, (26).
Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since
fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one
to three.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
activity enhancements depending on previous development
on the Sun.
F. K. Janda (OK1HH), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
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