| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 26.12.11 23:06l 275 Lines 9280 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : QCLOK0NAG00K
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG
Sent: 111226/2204z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 26 Dec 2011 22:04:19 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1324937021-03b34824e6967980001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 26 Dec 2011 22:04:22.0687 (UTC) FILETIME=[52F4CAF0:01CCC41A]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.173
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.84211Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1324937021
----boundary_281962_c6f37a18-0c49-4d58-abc3-e38a41d4a7f3
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hour. Region 1387 (S22W42) has produced two M-class flares, the
largest being an M2/Sf event at 26/2030Z. Region 1387 continues to
grow, in areal coverage and magnetic complexity as it rotates into a
more geoeffective location. Region 1386 (S17E37) also continues to
grow and evolve. A proton enhancement at geosynchronous orbit was
observed by the GOES 13 spacecraft, with a max flux of 3 pfu at
26/0135. This enhancement appears to be correlated to the M4/1n
flare from Region 1387 on 25 December. Protons were again at
background level at the time of this report. Over the past 36 hours,
5 CME's have been observed in STEREO and LASCO C2 and C3 imagery.
Three CME's were associated with eruptive filaments and two were
associated with flares from Region 1387. Of these five CME's two are
forecast to become geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class events for the next
three days (27 - 29 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels on day one (27
December). An increase to quiet to active levels with a chance for
an isolated minor storm period on days two and three (28 -29
December) is expected as two CME's, from filament eruptions on 25
December and 26 December, are expected to arrive on 28 December and
early on 29 December, respectfully.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 146
Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 26 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 001/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 004/005-013/018-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 01/40/40
Minor storm 01/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/40/40
Minor storm 05/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/15/20
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_281962_c6f37a18-0c49-4d58-abc3-e38a41d4a7f3
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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=----boundary_281962_c6f37a18-0c49-4d58-abc3-e38a41d4a7f3--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
